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Marginal probability distribution

The marginal probability distribution of a random variable that has a joint probability distribution with some other random variables is the probability distribution of that random variable without regard for the values that the other random variables take. The marginal distribution of a discrete random variable X1 that has a joint distribution with other discrete random variables can be found from the joint distribution by summing over all possible values of the other variables. For example, suppose we roll two fair dice independently. Let X1 be the number of spots that show on the first die, and let X2 be the total number of spots that show on both dice. Then the joint distribution of X1 and X2 is as follows:

P(X1 = 1, X2 = 2) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 3) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 4) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 5) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 6) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 7) =

P(X1 = 2, X2 = 3) = P(X1 = 2, X2 = 4) = P(X1 = 2, X2 = 5) = P(X1 = 2, X2 = 6) = P(X1 = 2, X2 = 7) = P(X1 = 2, X2 = 8) = …

… P(X1 = 6, X2 = 7) = P(X1 = 6, X2 = 8) = P(X1 = 6, X2 = 9) = P(X1 = 6, X2 = 10) = P(X1 = 6, X2 = 11) = P(X1 = 6, X2 = 12) = 1/36.

The marginal probability distribution of X1 is

P(X1 = 1) = P(X1 = 2) = P(X1 = 3) = P(X1 = 4) = P(X1 = 5) = P(X1 = 6) = 1/6.

We can verify that the marginal probability that X1 = 1 is indeed the sum of the joint probability distribution over all possible values of X2 for which X1 = 1:

P(X1 = 1) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 2) + P(X1 = 1, X2 = 3) + P(X1 = 1, X2 = 4) + P(X1 = 1, X2 = 5) + P(X1 = 1, X2 = 6) + P(X1 = 1, X2 = 7) = 6/36 = 1/6.

Similarly, the marginal probability distribution of X2 is

P(X2 = 2) = P(X2 = 12) = 1/36

P(X2 = 3) = P(X2 = 11) = 1/18

P(X2 = 4) = P(X2 = 10) = 3/36

P(X2 = 5) = P(X2 = 9) = 1/9

P(X2 = 6) = P(X2 = 8) = 5/36

P(X2 = 7) = 1/6.

Again, we can verify that the marginal probability that X2 = 4 is 3/36 by adding the joint probabilities for all possible values of X1 for which X2 = 4:

P(X2 = 4) = P(X1 = 1, X2 = 4) + P(X1 = 2, X2 = 4) + P(X1 = 3, X2 = 4) = 3/36.

Permanent link Marginal probability distribution - Creation date 2021-08-07


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