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Glossary Statistics / Term

Probability, Theories of

A theory of probability is a way of assigning meaning to probability statements such as "the chance that a thumbtack lands point-up is 2/3." That is, a theory of probability connects the mathematics of probability, which is the set of consequences of the axioms of probability, with the real world of observation and experiment. There are several common theories of probability. According to the frequency theory of probability, the probability of an event is the limit of the percentage of times that the event occurs in repeated, independent trials under essentially the same circumstances. According to the subjective theory of probability, a probability is a number that measures how strongly we believe an event will occur. The number is on a scale of 0% to 100%, with 0% indicating that we are completely sure it won't occur, and 100% indicating that we are completely sure that it will occur. According to the theory of equally likely outcomes, if an experiment has n possible outcomes, and (for example, by symmetry) there is no reason that any of the n possible outcomes should occur preferentially to any of the others, then the chance of each outcome is 100%/n. Each of these theories has its limitations, its proponents, and its detractors.

Permanent link Probability, Theories of - Creation date 2021-08-07


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